Assuming no unexpected party switching, the Republicans will win the Senate if they win at least six Senate seats (net). Here’s how things look the night before…
Likely Democratic seat losses (ordered by approximate likelihood, most to least, of flipping): West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, South Dakota, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa (8, based on consistent polling)
Possible Republican seat losses: only Kansas (1; independent may caucus with Republicans anyway)
Possible extra Dem seat losses: North Carolina, New Hampshire (2)
Likely key Republican seat holds: Georgia, Kentucky
Likely key Democratic seat holds: only Michigan (1)
N.B. Georgia and Louisiana are both expected to go to runoff or second-round elections after November. These will probably still be Republican wins, but will likely be highly contested if they are the determining factor for chamber control.
Background stats recap
- Going into the November 2014 elections, Democrats and their supporting independents control 55 seats out of 100.
- 36 seats in total, including 4 special elections, are up for election this year. (Most were last elected in 2008.)
- 21 Democratic seats are up for election this year.
- Only 15 Republican seats are up for election.
Key states with retirements
- West Virginia
- South Dakota