South Africa making headway in Lesotho crisis talks

South Africa’s government is continuing efforts to mediate between the competing political factions in the Lesotho crisis, and is now trying to resolve the military instability and leadership dispute by directly talking to the still dangerous and disaffected supporters of the unsuccessful power grab. Here’s the AFP report:

South Africa’s deputy president has held secret talks with a renegade Lesotho military commander, a defence official told AFP on Thursday [October 23], as an offer of partial amnesty is floated in the hope of ending a destabilising post-coup stand-off.

 
General Kamoli remained at a secret hideout with a small but heavily armed band of supporters after fleeing there following his attempted coup d’état at the end of August.

Any amnesty deal would relate to the crimes of the attempted coup itself, but might also include various incidentals:

Lesotho police are investigating him for two crimes linked to the 30 August assault: high treason and murder.
[…]
Mohasoa said authorities would be willing to provide the suspected coup leader his full retirement package “though we aren’t obliged to for a dismissed official.”

But more sensitive is the amnesty – perhaps for high treason, but not for murder.

“We can discuss possible amnesty for politically motivated reasons,” he said. “But not for what’s considered purely criminal actions.”

Whether Kamoli will accept the offer – which may include prosecution and perhaps jail-time – “That’s the million-dollar question,” said Mohasoa.

 
The other big thing, besides amnesty and clearing up where the military’s rank and file has placed its loyalties, will be trying to persuade the country’s police force to go along with it. They supported the prime minister and his ruling party against the failed coup and are understandably angry about the consequences of that, which continued to play out a month afterward:

Kamoli aside, Ramaphosa will also have to try to re-build trust between the country’s two most important security services – the Lesotho Defence Force and Lesotho Mounted Police Service.

In just the latest in a series of clashes on 30 September, a night-time shoot-out between soldiers and police on the outskirts of the capital Maseru left two more officers shot and wounded.

A top Lesotho police official told AFP he saw no major obstacle to rebuilding ties with the military if the coup leader and his allies, who have stymied criminal probes into transgressions by troops, are removed.

 
The South African mediation has also been making progress on the political front to resolve the critical, underlying factors that spurred the coup attempt:

Ramaphosa, mediating on behalf of the Southern African Development Community, has already reached a deal that allowed the re-opening of parliament – which had been shuttered for four months. As part of the agreement elections have been moved up two years to February 2015.

 
The ongoing closure of parliament was the main complaint held up by General Kamoli as justification for his purported goal of “disarming” the police and “escorting” the prime minister to the King of Lesotho to force parliament to be called back into session. The real reason, of course, was the prime minister’s decision to fire him as head of the armed forces the night before.

Update for Clarity, 10/28/14: According to the AFP’s Michael J. Jordan, who wrote the story I quoted above, the partial deal described above was signed late last week with the various co-conspirators and targets all in a room together (which must have been quite uncomfortable!). Kamoli will leave the country for a while and leave the military, while his police counterpart will also step down. But the unresolved details outlined in the post above remain a problem. Jordan believes the crisis is not finished yet.

Map of Lesotho's location in southern Africa. (CIA World Factbook)

Map of Lesotho’s location in southern Africa. (CIA World Factbook)

Is Zambia’s President Michael Sata on his deathbed? (updated)

Post updated following President Sata’s death on October 28; go to the bottom of the page.

zambia-president-michael-sata-UNDPPresident Michael Sata of Zambia, who has been very ill for quite some time (since June at the latest), has more or less disappeared from the country’s public eye, except occasionally resurfacing very briefly or issuing statements from doctors in Israel and the United States where he has been treated.

This is raising some questions as to whether he is on death’s door and why this is being suppressed to the extent it has been even in a democratic society. It’s almost as secretive as the 2009-2010 health crisis of Nigerian President Umaru Yar’adua, in which the leader of the most populous country in Africa disappeared to Saudi Arabia without explanation for four months and then returned for two months before passing away. In that situation, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan was eventually declared Acting President, because of the uncertain situation and clear abandonment of the duties of the office, until it became permanently vacant. Jonathan was subsequently elected to his own term and remains president of Nigeria now.

In the case of Zambia right now, President Sata’s hasn’t stepped aside or handed over power, and his last statement in public (back in September) literally included the line “I’m not dead.” So that’s … not very reassuring.

Zambia celebrated its 50th anniversary of independence from Britain on Friday without the President’s involvement, heightening speculation. But there are bigger questions about who exactly is running the country at the moment. The draft of a new constitution he has stalled since taking office in September 2011 was released the day before the independence festivities, which could be a distraction tactic or a more sinister sign that other, unelected people are making major moves behind the scenes.

zambia-vice-president-Guy-Scott-us-government-photoIf 77-year-old President Sata dies, he would be succeeded automatically by Vice President Guy Scott, the country’s first White Vice President. His father was active in supporting the Black nationalist independence movement, and the family has remained involved in the country’s self-governing politics since then.

If I’m not mistaken, Mr. Scott, who is himself 70 years old, would be the only White head of state in Africa right now and probably the first since the Apartheid regime in South Africa ended in 1994.
 
Update 2 @ 2:25 AM US Eastern Time: A government official has confirmed the news to Reuters.

Update 1 October 29, 2014 @ 1 AM US Eastern Time: Unconfirmed reports in Zambian news media say President Sata passed away in London last night. Thompson Reuters Foundation:

Zambian President Michael Sata has died in London, where he had been receiving treatment for an undisclosed illness, three private Zambian media outlets said on Wednesday.

The reports on the private Muzi television station and the Zambia Reports and Zambian Watchdog websites said the southern African nation’s cabinet was about to meet.

Government officials gave no immediate comment.

The reports said Sata had died on Tuesday evening at London’s King Edward VII hospital. The hospital declined to comment.

 
According to a report by ZambianWatchdog.org, power is set to be handed to Scott, although perhaps not quietly…

The remaining Zambian cabinet was due to meet at 05: 00 hours on Wednesday Zambian time to formalise power transfer to vice-president Guy Scott, government sources have revealed.

The main agenda of the meeting was for acting president [and Defense Minister] Edgar Lungu to handover power to Scott. Most likely, it is after this formality that the Zambia government will announce the passing on of president Michael Sata.

It is not yet clear if Lungu will agree to handover as he may argue that he is the one to lead the country to the by-election. Lungu and some ministers had a meeting around midnight when they heard the news.

 
Minister Lungu assumed the role of “acting presidency” while Sata was out of the country for health treatments, but in the event of the president’s death the vice president is automatically declared acting president for 90 days until a special election is held. The Zambian Watchdog website broke the story of Sata’s passing overnight and has been tracking President Sata’s illnesses for several years now.

zambia-flag

No budget for “those” kind of diseases…

Sad truths from a New York Times article on an experimental Ebola vaccine that had been successfully tested with monkeys to great fanfare and then sat on a shelf untested on humans for almost ten years…

Its development stalled in part because Ebola is rare, and until now, outbreaks had infected only a few hundred people at a time. But experts also acknowledge that the lack of follow-up on such a promising candidate reflects a broader failure to produce medicines and vaccines for diseases that afflict poor countries. Most drug companies have resisted spending the enormous sums needed to develop products useful mostly to countries with little ability to pay.

 

Credit: Wikimedia

Credit: Wikimedia

There was never a truce in Nigeria, just so we’re clear

On Friday, the world media foolishly decided yet again to take the Nigerian military at its word when they announced a truce with Boko Haram and a deal to release the kidnapped girls from Chibok. I explained, with a laundry list of evidence, why there was no reason to trust that this huge claim was true, especially with zero confirmation or comment from Boko Haram.

It only took a day for “we have a deal” to become they have “agreed in principle” to a deal, with negotiations to follow. And then came the explaining away of ongoing violence after a purported ceasefire.

A senior public affairs aide to the president, Doyin Okupe, told VOA that Boko Haram leadership is on board with the truce and that the violence was perpetrated by “fringe groups” of fighters who likely had not gotten word of the agreement.

 
Over the weekend, the violence continued to mount, undercutting any case that a ceasefire actually existed.

Suspected militant Islamists have shot and slaughtered people in three villages in north-east Nigeria, despite government claims that it had agreed a truce with them, residents say.

Boko Haram fighters raided two villages on Saturday, and raised their flag in a third, residents said.

The government said it would continue negotiating with Boko Haram, despite the alleged breach of the truce.

It hopes the group will this week free more than 200 girls it seized in April.

Boko Haram has not commented on the announcement made on Friday that a truce had been agreed, and that the militants would release the schoolgirls abducted from the remote north-eastern town of Chibok.

 
The government tried to point to the recent release of dozens of Cameroonian and Chinese prisoners as evidence that the purported negotiations were making progress, while skipping over the fact that they were released days before any such deal had been announced and were probably unrelated.

Moreover, the Nigerian government claims to be negotiating in nearby Chad with a man named Danladi Ahmadu, which has immediately raised all kinds of red flags… Read more

The Farce that is Nigeria’s Armed Forces

Today the global media was aflutter with an announcement by senior Nigerian military officials that a deal had been reached with Boko Haram to have a ceasefire and get back the kidnapped northern girls. Boko Haram did not confirm or deny…or say anything…according to every single news report around the world that I heard or read.

I flat-out do not believe any such deal has been reached. Not even a little bit. The only thing that will convince me otherwise is when those girls are actually back home with their families and the world media can verify that fact.

Why don’t I take it seriously? In addition to the lack of any confirmation from the deciding player in the situation (Boko Haram), this year has been marked by one long series of increasingly vast fabrications and demonstrations of incompetence by Nigeria’s military and security forces.

Below are just a few of the completely absurd things that either actually happened in Nigeria or have been made up entirely by the military, just in one week of September. It’s genuinely hard to decide which ones — the facts or the fictions — are more flabbergasting. But either way, there’s no credibility anymore.

One shining week of lies and failure: Compiled September 27, 2014

From the People Who Failed to Bring Back The Nigerian Girls Comes…the receiving end of the most boring A-Team heist of all time:

Last week it was reported that government agents took $9.3m (£5.7m) in cash to South Africa to buy weapons.
[…]
South African police said last week customs officials seized the money in $100 bills in three suitcases that arrived on a private jet from Nigeria at Johannesburg’s Lanseria airport earlier in September. The two Nigerians and an Israeli allegedly did not declare the money and it was impounded.

 
Parliamentary inquiries into the affair were immediately stonewalled for “national security reasons.” Then, after re-affirming everyone’s lack of trust in them, the Nigerian government and military proceeded to initiate the most epic and ham-fisted scramble to get out of trouble probably since “the dog ate my homework.”

First they tried to claim that the kidnapped girls had been rescued only to have retracted that within hours. This is the second time they have tried to pull this.

Then they went for a lie so big it might almost work, except again for having no way to prove it or even prevent it being disproven… They announced that Boko Haram’s leadership had been dispatched with extreme prejudice and the group was rapidly collapsing overnight.

Now by this point in the week there was NO WAY I could believe anything the Nigerian military claims, let alone something as gigantic as that, without outside proof and yet it rapidly circulated in Western media:

The military claims Mohammed Bashir was an imposter posing as Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau, thought to have died in 2009

General Chris Olukolade of the Nigerian military said that Mohammed Bashir, who was killed in the latest offensive against Boko Haram, was a lookalike.

The Nigerian military has said that more than 260 Boko Haram militants have surrendered in north-eastern Nigeria.

 
Purely coincidence that they accidentally lose a ton of cash to South African customs officials, then suddenly start trying to claim they’ve rescued the kidnapped girls, and then when that’s proven false claim they’ve killed the lookalike and real leader of Boko Haram. I’m not sure they grasp how distraction tactics or plausible lies are meant to work work.

By the way: Nigeria and Cameroon’s armed forces have between them claimed to have killed the head of Boko Haram — or one of his doubles — multiple times over 5 years. Some experts think he’s been dead the whole time, like Bruce Willis. Others think he’s still alive.

Meanwhile, the claim that Boko Haram is collapsing was based on an unverified assertion of two separate incidents involving surrenders of fewer than 200 fighters … out of thousands. In contrast to those claims, Boko Haram staged multiple dramatic attacks in the 24 hours following the announcement of their purported collapse.

Wow, that held up all the way to the next day.

Trust us, this time

Again, all of that happened in, essentially, a roughly 7-8 day period preceding September 27. Now, less than a month later, we’re meant to believe that the previously “collapsing” Boko Haram has struck a major ceasefire deal and will be returning the girls, whom we’re told (without much evidence) are being treated well and are fine.

Here’s the thing: These lies matter, and they don’t mean nothing. They are deeply propagandistic, however incompetent, and this means the global media (or Western media, particularly) is complicit in this disgusting charade. There are few if any other countries where false claims of this magnitude are readily and regularly repeated with so little criticism or investigation.

Reporting false or unverified deals with insurgent groups is unwitting propaganda because it makes subsequent lack of progress appear one-sided. As in, if Nigeria’s military announces a deal and then fighting continues, it must be that Boko Haram broke the deal, instead of that there was never a deal because the government and military didn’t put in the work to make it happen. (For all we know, nothing was ever even negotiated!) We see this happen quite often during civil conflicts, as a way to score public approval points.

If a country or military announces a ceasefire or peace deal with rebel or terror group and then peace doesn’t happen, the default assumption is that the rebels/terrorists sabotaged the deal. Which is certainly plausible in many situations, but that assumption actually makes it easier for the authorities to exploit. Thus, governments have an incentive to announce non-serious or even imaginary peace offers as a done deal, to strengthen their “peacemaker” credentials. They get to say “Look, we tried to make peace and they stabbed us in the back!” and then keep fighting, and the media dutifully reports that version of events.

How the media should report on claims by Nigeria’s military
  1. Until Boko Haram confirms a deal and until those kidnapped girls are back, there is no deal.
  2. The Nigerian military lies regularly, constantly, and spectacularly. Anything they assert, at this point, should be assumed false until proven true.
  3. Stop repeating anything they say, without absolute confirmation. Official sources are only worth something when they’re usually reliably factual.

It’s pretty simple. Don’t splash those headlines all over the web, TV, and radio, unless and until you have absolute proof that it’s not made up. Don’t even report unverified “progress” announcements with the caveat that it can’t be confirmed. There’s no room for benefit of the doubt anymore with the Nigerian military’s statements.

We usually don’t see such epic and false proclamations from top military officials except in North Korea, and we don’t see U.S. media outlets unironically and uncritically reporting the claims of wondrous majesty and prowess by the Dear Leader. The claims by Nigeria’s military and government on the situation in northern Nigeria consistently proven untrue within about 48 hours, but buy them a little extra time and faith that isn’t warranted. Stop helping.

boko-haram-attacks-nigerian-states-2010-2013

Zimbabwe: First Lady Rising

90-year-old Robert Mugabe’s 49-year-old second wife (and former secretary, with no political experience) recently “earned” her PhD in just 2 months and unexpectedly became head of the ruling party’s Women’s League. Is she being positioned to succeed the dictator as Zimbabwe’s leader? Is she being manipulated by political factions to undercut rival contenders for the succession?

Whatever the reason, the barely suppressed outrage at her rapid promotions, even within President Mugabe’s own ruling party, is threatening to open the floodgates to open dissent and criticism of his leadership. Then again, it might be the case that he has already become so isolated and afraid that he could only trust his wife.

Kenyan sentence an urgent reminder of the need for legal abortion

A nurse has been sentenced to death in Kenya after being held responsible for the death of a young woman or girl who tried to get an abortion, back in 2009. He maintained that she had first tried to get one from unsafe source and then sought help from him as she developed complications but died anyway. The last death sentence in the country was applied in 1987.

Judge Nicholas Ombija said the court had established “that the accused caused the death of the deceased” and convicted him of murder.

 
Abortions are only legal in the country to save the life of the mother, and 120,000 women are treated annually for complications from failed attempts to obtain one illegally. The defendant is to be hanged for his role in the young woman’s death. Due to pressure by religious leaders, the law that really killed her is not expected to be changed.